The worldwide stop on production capacity extension for solar modules is proving to be a heavy burden for the solar machine manufacturers. Nevertheless, no company wants to quit the PV sector, because the solar energy market is already set to pick up again in the medium term. Until this happens, the equipment suppliers are strengthening other sources of sales and income. We take a look at the situation in Germany, a litmus for the rest of Europe
That sounds like hard times. For 83 per cent of the photovoltaics (PV) suppliers in Germany the order situation has worsened compared to the previous year. That is why the companies are expecting an average sales decline of over 20 per cent in 2012. This in turn is having a negative effect on employment. Almost two thirds of companies are making use of short-time working. The current business climate survey conducted by the German Engineering Federation (Verband Deutscher Maschinen- und Anlagenbau – VDMA) leaves us in no doubt: in just a few months solar machine manufacturing has gone from order boom to sales crisis.
“The investment readiness of the cell and module manufacturers has noticeably declined”, explains Eric Maiser, Executive Director of the Photovoltaic Production Aids platform within the VDMA. On the one hand the manufacturers have developed clear surplus production capacities and analysts estimate that in 2012 around 30 gigawatts (GW) of PV output will be installed worldwide – in the context of global production capacity of 50 gigawatts.
On the other, the trend in key PV installation markets is uncertain. Many countries with solar energy feed-in charges have in some cases drastically reduced their subsidy tariffs because the installations were getting out of control. For the world’s largest solar market, Italy, for example, the experts are this year expecting expansions of only two gigawatts – that would correspond to a market decline of three quarters compared to 2011.
On top of this, there is the fact that China, the main sales market for European suppliers, is gradually establishing its own powerful solar machine manufacturing market. For that reason the Europeans can no longer do business there as easily as previously. “The technological independence of foreign companies should be reduced to a minimum in China”, explains management consultant and China expert Frank Haugwitz. Within the framework of the current 12th five-year plan (2011 to 2015) implemented by the Chinese government, photovoltaics is right at the top of the political agenda. “Therefore considerable financial funds are being made available for solar energy, especially for plant construction and new cell types”, says Haugwitz.
