It’s not often that I begin an Editor’s Note by urging readers to ignore what I’m about to write, but I’m tempted to in this issue of PES. The fact is, our lead feature is a game-changer and if you read nothing else in this issue, then that’s where you should be heading. Right now.
Here’s a taster: “While solar has a fractional share of the market now, within one decade, solar PV (plus battery storage) may have such a share of the market that it becomes a trigger for energy price deflation, with huge consequences for the massive fossil fuel industry that relies on continued growth.
“Eventually solar will become so large that there will be consequences everywhere. This remarkable overthrow of everything we take for granted in world energy politics may occur within the better part of a decade.” According to the experts, we’ve got just ten years before solar vanquishes fossil fuels. Wow.
If our hypothesis is broadly correct, solar will slowly squeeze the revenues of petro regimes in Russia, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, among others. Bear in mind that many nations already need oil prices near $100 a barrel to cover their welfare budgets and military spending. They will have to find a new business model, or fade into decline.
And the simple fact is, our technology is progressing at such a rate, and solar prices are dropping so dramatically, that oil can’t win.
Or can it? Turn to our lead feature to find out.
And then there’s China to consider. For while PV is becoming ever cheaper and simpler to install, China’s government has been as surprised as European governments by how quickly it can be deployed in response to incentives.
