The latest research from Cornwall Insight’s ‘Green certificate survey’ shows Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin (REGOs) prices have risen significantly in recent months, with average reported prices of £1.35/REGO for Fuel Mix Disclosure (FMD) 2021-22 and £1.41/REGO for FMD 2022-23. This is 228% and 214% higher, respectively, than reported prices in the April 2021 survey.
The Green Certificate survey is designed to give a snapshot of the market surveying 55 organisations across the industry from 20 July to 6 August.
Respondents to the survey reported that unfuelled (wind, solar and hydro) or ‘deep green’ REGOs continue to hold a price premium over fuelled REGOs (energy from waste, landfill gas and biomass). For example, the reported prices for FMD 2021-22 averaged £1.72/REGO for unfuelled REGOs compared to £1.03/REGO for fuelled REGOs.
Luke Ansell, Senior Analyst at Cornwall Insight, said:
“In line with this reported price rise, 64% of respondents reported a strong upward trend in REGO values in the past three months, with no respondents reporting a downward trend.
“Higher prices have been caused by a combination of factors including below-average wind output, demand pressure from the increasing popularity of certificate-backed renewable tariffs and additional demand from last-minute compliance buying for FMD 2020-21 obligations.
“In line with post-Brexit trade agreements, the potential for European Guarantees of Origins (GoOs) to no longer be accepted for FMD in Britain further fuelled REGO demand and price rises. However, 66% of participants said this expectation was already being priced into the current market.
“These high prices are expected to be sustained, with 86% of respondents expecting REGO prices to remain at current levels or rise even further, with the majority (at 59%) expecting further price rises. In addition, respondents listed a fundamentally shorter market due to the end of implicit trading of European GoOs, the potential for EU GoOs to be prevented for use in GB altogether, and growing demand from corporate and domestic users as future price drivers.
“On 16 August, BEIS opened the consultation ‘Designing a framework for transparency of carbon content in energy products’. This call for evidence invites views on whether the use of REGO certificates for annualised renewable energy matching inhibits consumers’ transparency and how the REGO framework could be adapted to drive additional investment in renewable energy generation.
“Given the recent focus of multiple government bodies on ‘greenwashing’, 57% of respondents said they expect changes to the regulation of green energy tariffs (before the BEIS consultation was opened), and BEIS’ call for evidence may be the first step in this direction.”