The latest figures from Cornwall Insight’s ‘Benchmark power curve’ forecasts that by 2040 EVs will contribute an additional 71.6TWh, this is a massive 31 times higher than the current level of demand for electricity from electrified transport and 25% of current annual demand which stands at 299TWh (excluding losses).
According to our latest ‘Benchmark power curve report’ electrification of the economy (electric vehicles & heat pumps) and use of green hydrogen as an energy carrier, all increase demand from 298TWh in 2021-22 to 628.4TWh in the Central Scenario (see figure 1) by 2040 and up to 668.2TWh in the High Scenario.
Tom Edwards, Senior Modeller at Cornwall Insight, said:
“EVs are widely seen as crucial in reducing emissions to meet net zero. However, the magnitude of the impact that the technology will have on the electricity system should not be underestimated. If EVs increase according to the National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios (FES) Leading the Way scenario, the increase in demand for electricity will be substantial.
“However, EVs have the potential to offer the system considerable flexible vehicle-to-grid (V2G) discharging and smart charging, which reduces the level of investment needed in flexible power supply.
“At the same time, greater flexibility may be needed if consumers were to charge whenever it is convenient, and with the wide deployment of EVs needed to meet net zero it is clear that this would currently not be possible
“The electrification of transport remains a significant challenge, particularly if the current market design remains the same. However, to sustain such a growth in demand, it is likely that the market design will need to change to better support the net zero objectives.”
About the Cornwall Insight Group
Cornwall Insight is the pre-eminent provider of research, analysis, consulting and training to businesses and stakeholders engaged in the Australian, Great British and Irish energy markets. To support our customers, we leverage a powerful combination of analytical capability, a detailed appreciation of regulation codes and policy frameworks, and a practical understanding of how markets function.