EconPol Europe: Economic Growth Expectations Higher Following Biden’s Election

19 January 2021: International experts surveyed by EconPol Europe expect the election of Joe Biden to boost economic growth in their countries. The survey of 843 experts from 107 countries reveals they expect the Democratic candidate’s win to add 1.16 percentage points on average to growth in 2021.

“After the ongoing coronavirus crisis and its drastic effects, respondents say Biden’s presidency could be a ray of hope for global economic development in the coming year,” says EconPol’s Niklas Potrafke (Director of the ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy), co-author of the study. However, respondents in the US did not expect any change for their own country, making the overall effect plus 0.98 percentage points.

Potrafke points out that in the period from 1949 to 2012, economic growth under Democratic presidents in the US was 1.79 percentage points higher than under Republican presidents. “Assuming this pattern continues, then a look at the past suggests higher growth rates under Democrat Joe Biden than under a second term of Republican Donald Trump,” the study says.

The first half of the responses were obtained in the five days leading up to 3 November election date, the other half thereafter in the period 8-13 November.

Read the full paper: www.econpol.eu/publications/working_paper_56

About EconPol Europe

EconPol Europe – the European network for economic and fiscal policy research – is a network of 14 policy-oriented university and non-university research institutes across 12 countries, who contribute scientific expertise to the discussion of the future design of the European Union. The network’s joint interdisciplinary research covers sustainable growth and best practice, reform of EU policies and the EU budget, capital markets and the regulation of the financial sector, and governance and macroeconomic policy in the European Monetary Union.

The network was founded in spring 2017 by the ifo Institute, along with eight renowned European research institutes. A further five associate partners* were added to the network in January 2019.

The foundation of EconPol Europe was made possible by an initiative of the German Federal Ministry of Finance (BMF) to intensify and deepen cross-border research and cooperation in Europe. The ifo Institute was commissioned by the BMF to set up this independent network, providing evidence-based policy advice to inform the economic and fiscal policy debate in Europe.