The site looks perfect. The wind conditions are promising, the local community is supportive, and initial permit discussions have begun. But for many developers in Polands dynamic wind market, a hidden risk remains: grid availability. Success today is not only about finding the right location; it’s about knowing
when a site can truly deliver power and whether the projects economics can survive the wait.
Poland stands as one of the most promising wind energy markets in Europe. The national energy strategy (PEP2040) targets an ambitious 18 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2040, while onshore wind already contributes around 9.43 GW to the grid. Recent changes to the 10H distance rule have opened up new areas for development, sparking optimism across the market.
Yet, unlocking new land alone does not solve the core challenges. A wind project is only as strong as its weakest link, and in Poland, that link is often the grid.
While many project developers focus on finding the best wind conditions, the availability of grid connections is often the real limiting factor in Poland. The Polish transmission system operator, Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne (PSE), faces significant challenges in keeping pace with the rapid expansion of renewable energy.
The real-world consequences for developers can be severe. In some areas, grid access permits are subject to significant delays, often stretching over several years due to limited transmission capacity. A developer might identify a high-potential site with strong wind resources, only to discover that grid connection capacity in the area is already fully allocated for the next three years. Without a viable grid access route, even the best site remains a theoretical exercise. This makes early and thorough grid assessment a crucial, non-negotiable part of project development.
In Polands competitive landscape, evaluating a site goes far beyond just measuring wind speeds. Developers must ask the right questions early on:
In a market where every month counts, developers who wait for years of traditional measurement campaigns may find their chosen site is no longer available or that grid capacity has been allocated elsewhere. Fortunately, advanced methods that combine historical weather data with modern wind modeling can provide high-quality yield predictions much faster, allowing developers to make informed decisions based on realistic scenarios instead of best guesses.
Grid constraints and yield uncertainty directly shape a projects financial feasibility. Banks and investors expect detailed yield assessments with 20-25 years of projected output, but these forecasts hold little value if grid access is unresolved. A project that cannot deliver its power on time risks revenue losses and even project failure.
To address this, developers are increasingly integrating storage solutions and flexible plant designs into their strategies. Battery systems, hybrid projects combining wind and solar, or Power-to-X technologies can help balance production and improve grid compatibility. These options not only increase the technical feasibility of projects but also strengthen their business case by reducing curtailment risks and improving revenue stability. Financiers view these flexible designs as key risk mitigation strategies, making projects more attractive for funding.
In a fast-moving market like Polands, the real advantage lies in preparation and the quality of early-stage decisions. Success will belong to those who integrate grid analysis from the very beginning, use data-driven insights to move quickly and confidently, and recognize that the best sites are worthless if they cant connect to the grid.
Learn more about data-driven wind project assessments: www.4-cast.de