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Beyond the Forecast: How AI and Real-Time Data Are Mastering Offshore Weather Risks

Published in: Wind, Digital Blog

Beyond the Forecast: How AI and Real-Time Data Are Mastering Offshore Weather Risks image

As the offshore wind industry expands into deeper and rougher waters, it faces a significant challenge: traditional weather forecasting is no longer sufficient. These forecasts, while useful for a broad outlook, often lack the site-specific precision and time resolution needed for critical operational decisions.

This problem is compounded by climate change, which is increasing the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events. This creates a more volatile and hazardous environment for installation and maintenance. For instance:

  • Historical data from the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) shows a stark trend in the North Sea. Between 2020 and 2022, the percentage of time that wave heights surpassed 1.5 meters almost doubled compared to 2018-2019.
  • At the Dan Tysk wind farm, 76% of the recorded wave heights during the 2022-2023 winter season were above this 1.5-meter threshold, a condition that severely impacts maintenance schedules and turbine access.

A Smarter Solution: AI-Enhanced Forecasting with Real-Time Data

To combat these challenges, a new, more sophisticated approach is being implemented: a well-integrated system that combines forecasting models with accurate, real-time metocean measurements.

This system works by streaming up-to-the-minute measurement data from the specific offshore site directly into predictive forecasting models. This constant flow of live data provides precise benchmarks that are used to continuously fine-tune and correct the forecast output, enhancing both short-term and medium-term accuracy.

This refined methodology has been shown to improve forecast accuracy by up to 60% over conventional providers, giving operators a far more reliable tool for decision-making. The Dan Tysk wind farm is a prime example of this technology in action, where real-time metocean measurements from Miros are continuously fed to the AI-driven forecasting provider, i4sea, to create hyperlocal predictions.

The Technology Powering the Change

At the heart of this evolution is advanced sensor and cloud technology. Miros provides a suite of tools designed for the harsh offshore environment:

  • Real-time Measurement Systems: Miros sensors can be retrofitted to existing infrastructure, such as turbines and vessels, to provide continuous, high-frequency data on the complete sea state, including significant wave height, currents, and wave direction.
  • Miros Cloud and Miros.app: Data from the sensors is processed and made available through Miros Cloud, a platform built on Microsoft Azure IoT and Cloud infrastructure—the same technology NASA uses for live space station data. This data can be accessed 24/7 on any browser or device via the Miros.app, which offers a range of applications for data exploration, forecasting, and analysis.

Comprehensive Benefits Across Operations

The integration of real-time data delivers multifaceted benefits that enhance safety, efficiency, and sustainability.

  • Maximised Productivity: Operators can make precise go/no-go decisions, which maximizes turbine accessibility and helps optimize maintenance windows to avoid unnecessary delays.
  • Improved Safety: More accurate forecasts of rough seas and high winds directly mitigate risks and improve worker safety.
  • Reduced Emissions: By avoiding unnecessary vessel deployments during prohibitive weather, operators can lower fuel consumption and reduce emissions.
  • Enhanced Resilience: Because forecast corrections are constantly grounded in what is actually happening onsite, it builds confidence among crews and enhances the overall responsiveness of project planning.

Case Study: The Horns Rev 1 Upgrade

Horns Rev 1, the worlds first large-scale offshore wind farm, exemplifies the value of this technological shift. The site was originally equipped with submerged metocean sensors that were expensive to maintain and prone to damage during storms, leading to months of lost data. By upgrading to Miros modern, real-time monitoring systems, Horns Rev 1 significantly enhanced its operational efficiency with reliable, remotely accessible wave and weather data.

Future-Proofing for a Dynamic Industry

The offshore wind industry is evolving rapidly, and its supporting technology must keep pace. Miros systems are designed to be future-proof. They are built on IoT-enabled hardware, which means that system updates—whether a new algorithm, sharper data, or an improved interface—can be sent remotely without pausing operations or requiring an offshore technician. This allows an operators technology to evolve and improve over the multi-decade lifecycle of a wind farm, ensuring the systems remain aligned with future needs without the disruption of physical replacements.

Discover more about this next-generation approach: https://www.miros-group.com/market/offshore-wind/

How is your project leveraging real-time data to navigate operational challenges? Share your thoughts below.

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